ACLED warns of intensified fighting in central Myanmar in the next 6 months

August 8 The military junta is relocating its forces to the central region of the country, suggesting that fighting in Sagaing, Magway, and Mandalay regions may intensify in the next six months, according to a new report by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). The military has gained opportunities to redeploy its forces to central Myanmar due to ceasefires or reduced fighting with some ethnic armed organizations, ACLED stated in its report released on August 6. Sagaing, Magway, and Mandalay ranked highest in terms of violence incidents recorded between January and July 2026, and these three regions also ranked highest in the second half of 2025. "Conflicts are likely to re-orient towards areas where revolutionary groups that emerged after the coup are concentrated," ACLED said. Currently, the central region of Myanmar is facing attacks using motorized paragliders and gyrocopters, and such attacks could intensify if the military junta further redeploys its troops. This analysis comes after the military junta announced a 100-day peace plan in April. ACLED points out that the military junta appears to be aiming to retake lost territories, expand its control, and further fragment the revolutionary forces. Furthermore, ACLED connects and points out that the changing battlefield situation is based on strategic highways, foreign investment areas, and natural resource mining rights. ACLED warns that competition for natural resources is becoming increasingly important in the conflict, as both sides require funding to sustain their operations. Currently, the military junta is advancing towards strategically important areas, including the oil-rich Pauk and Myin districts. Editor: Aung Kyaw Phyo