BARMM Polls Face Polarization, Violence Risks Despite Preparations

Election watchdogs on Tuesday warned that the first parliamentary elections of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) are threatened by heightened political polarization, localized violence, controlled voting and other challenges, with immediate priorities and recommendations laid out to address these. In a pre-election assessment released Tuesday, the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI) identified several key issues surrounding the upcoming BARMM elections on September 14. According to the Technical Assessment Mission (TAM), a joint undertaking of the two organizations to assess the upcoming elections, preparations were generally strong, with stakeholders expressing confidence in the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) and the Bangsamoro Electoral Office (BEO). It also noted substantial security coordination, vibrant multiparty competition and measures to broaden political and sectoral representation. However, the TAM said the elections are threatened by heightened political polarization and persistent risks of localized violence, intimidation and controlled voting. It also flagged substantial changes to the legal and political framework, barriers to meaningful participation, limited voter education and disparities in campaign resources. On political polarization and electoral security, NDI country representative May Gladys Butoy said there are growing divisions within Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)-linked political networks. She noted an increasingly visible split between the camp of Chairman Ahod Ebrahim and the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), and that of BARMM Interim Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua and the Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP), both of which are seen as leading contenders. “These matters go beyond party rivalry. Whichever bloc prevails will shape how the peace process political track moves forward, and the report notes that prolonged tension has already generated anxiety over the future of the peace process,” Ms. Butoy said during a press conference on the report. Although security preparations have been well-coordinated, with additional troops and police personnel deployed from neighboring regions, stakeholders rasied more concerns over the risk of post-election violence should results be perceived as unfair or lacking credibility, the report said. “A broader point that the mission makes is that reported incidents alone should not be the sole measure of electoral security. Where political authorities, clan structures and armed influence overlap, coercion can shape voter behavior quietly through controlled and captive voting,” Ms. Butoy said. On the legal and political framework, TAM said the Bangsamoro Organic Law and Bangsamoro Electoral Code provide a sufficient basis for the polls, but successive changes to the electoral and political framework, including the redrawing of parliamentary districts, have created uncertainty among stakeholders. On representation and participation, the mission noted barriers faced by women, sectoral groups, persons with disabilities, Indigenous Peoples and internally displaced persons. While parties met the 30% requirement for women nominees, women were often placed in less electable positions, while only 14 of 107 district candidates are women. Meanwhile, the report also found that voter understanding of the new parliamentary system remains limited, particularly among communities in geographically isolated areas. It also flagged gaps in accessible information, language barriers, limited internet access and the risk of misinformation. On campaign and electoral preparations, the mission noted vibrant multiparty competition but raised concerns over unequal campaign resources, the influence of political clans, vote buying, abuse of state resources and false or misleading information online. To address these challenges, the report recommended immediate priorities, including ensuring legal certainty and consistent enforcement of electoral rules, strengthening impartial security measures, and expanding voter education and accessibility. It also called for the enforcement of rules against vote buying and misuse of state resources, as well as greater access for election observers, civil society and the media. It also urged authorities and political stakeholders to work toward ensuring that the elections are credible, inclusive and peaceful, noting that the conduct and outcome of the polls could affect post-election stability and the Bangsamoro peace process. — Edg Adrian A. Eva