Youth, armed groups and the drug economy in eastern Myanmar

By Antonio Graceffo According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), opium cultivation across Myanmar has increased by 17 percent this year. In eastern Shan State, it has risen by 32 percent, the highest increase among cultivation areas in the country. Southern Shan State continues to be the country's largest opium-producing region, accounting for 44 percent of the nation's opium fields, an increase of 13 percent from the previous year. Total opium production has increased slightly to approximately 1,010 metric tons. Due to widespread conflict and related agricultural disruptions, the yield per hectare has decreased from 22 kilograms to 19 kilograms. Myanmar's drug economy extends beyond opium to include synthetic drugs. UNODC records show that in 2024, a record 236 metric tons of methamphetamine were seized across East and Southeast Asia, a 24 percent increase from 2023, with Shan State identified as the region of origin for these drugs. This total amount includes two types: high-purity "ice" (crystal meth) and lower-purity stimulant pills mixed with caffeine (known locally as "yama" or "ya ba"). In Thailand alone, 1 billion ya ba pills smuggled from Myanmar were seized in 2024. In production areas, the wholesale price of methamphetamine has fallen by more than half to $400 per kilogram, indicating large-scale production. The rise in illicit drug trafficking is closely linked to regional armed groups that need money to survive. These groups generate some income by collecting taxes from local families or by forcibly taking a portion of their income or agricultural produce. Since most local residents are already impoverished, these tax collections represent a significant economic burden. However, this money represents only a small fraction of the funds needed to purchase weapons, ammunition, and feed soldiers. As a result, armed groups have become reliant on a variety of illicit economic activities, including drug trafficking, human trafficking, illegal logging, and illegal mining. For young people, the war-torn economy offers few legitimate opportunities. High unemployment, irregular income, and the lack of a stable livelihood make it difficult for many families to meet basic needs. According to a local journalist, some young people, particularly those aged 15 to 35, are turning to the drug trade because it offers better income than jobs that pay less than three dollars a day. However, this trade pushes them towards violence, arrest, exploitation, and long-term social harm. For most, participation in this trade is either a necessary alternative income source due to limited economic prospects or is done under duress and coercion. A World Bank study monitored employment conditions in key opium-growing highland townships in Shan, Kayah, Karen, and Chin states between 2017 and 2022. In these townships, agricultural employment increased by 22 percent, while mining and construction employment decreased by 13 percent. Nationwide, the trend was reversed: agricultural employment declined, while mining, construction, and retail employment increased. In opium-growing townships, self-employment decreased by 26 percent, and seasonal daily wage labor increased by 27 percent, reflecting a shift towards contract farming related to the opium harvest cycle. Average agricultural wages also rose significantly during this period. Households in Chin State told researchers that clearing, planting, and harvesting opium fields, though lasting only one to two weeks per season, yielded about three times the daily wage of ordinary farming. Another reason pushing young people into the drug trade is forced conscription. The post-coup military junta reinstated the People's Military Service Law in February 2024. This law requires men aged 18 to 35 and women aged 18 to 27 to serve in the military. By mid-December 2025, the military had opened up to 20 rounds of military training. According to local residents, approximately 100,000 new recruits have been gathered through coercive methods. Opposition armed groups also recruit from this age group. The People's Defense Force (PDF) claims to have grown from 65,000 members in 2022 to 85,000 in 2024. Both sides are recruiting young people. The drug trade remains one of the few avenues of income left outside the military. The interplay of armed conflict, illicit economic activities, weak institutional governance, and youth unemployment has created a cycle that is difficult to break. Addressing these challenges requires not only law enforcement and regional cooperation but also improved education, vocational training, the creation of legitimate employment opportunities, and sustainable economic development for conflict-affected communities. Reducing the economic incentives to engage in illicit activities is key to long-term stability and protecting young people from exploitation. However, many armed groups benefit economically from illicit trade and are therefore not eager to stop it. Nang Lwan Kham, a 42-year-old Shan widow and mother of two, living in a township near the Thai border in Chiang Mai province, said her husband was involved in cross-border drug trafficking...