Myanmar is going through an interregnum, with the old system broken and a new one not yet emerged, says Thai scholar

Myanmar is going through an "interregnum," a period where the legitimacy and cohesion of the existing political system have broken down, but a new, universally agreed-upon future political system has not yet emerged, according to Chayan Vaddhanaphuti, a scholar from Chiang Mai University in Thailand. In a discussion with Insight Myanmar Podcast, Chayan, a professor at Chiang Mai University (CMU) and director of the Regional Center for Social Science and Sustainable Development (RCSD), said, "We believe that discussions are needed among people from various backgrounds." According to him, the current situation in Myanmar highlights not only political and humanitarian challenges but also ideological and academic ones. RCSD is a platform striving to discuss and formulate future political thought and socio-political frameworks for Myanmar. Chayan's main analysis is that Myanmar is in an interregnum. This is a period when the legitimacy and cohesion of the old political system have broken down, but a new system that can replace it has not yet been built with broad consensus. This is also a time of great ideological uncertainty. Basic questions such as "What is national identity?", "How to build a federal system?", and "What are the values that ethnic groups and all citizens can share?" remain unresolved, he said. This instability is both dangerous and an opportunity. If ideological and academic work can be carried out systematically, a more inclusive political framework may begin to emerge. However, if this is not done, ethnic and political divisions could deepen further, Chayan analyzed. RCSD's mandate is to critically examine social and environmental changes in the mainland Southeast Asian region. Within this regional framework, Myanmar has become a particularly important focus. This is because Myanmar has undergone significant changes over the past 20 years, and the difficulties have intensified, especially after the February 2021 military coup. RCSD had been working on Myanmar-related issues even before the military coup. It brought together journalists, activists, and researchers to study and discuss land, education, and social changes. These early efforts aimed to create spaces for collaboration, enabling those working within Myanmar to analyze their country's changes themselves. In previous years, RCSD collaborated with Mandalay University to help improve the research capacity of its faculty. It supported research on topics such as land grabbing issues in Upper Myanmar, the education of young girls entering monastic life in northern Myanmar, and tensions between tradition and modernity within agricultural communities. Furthermore, RCSD regularly organized conferences in Chiang Mai focusing on Myanmar. Even after the military coup, it launched a scholar-at-risk fellowship program in Thailand. Through this program, it supports journalists, artists, and researchers connected with civil society organizations. In essence, RCSD functions as a relatively safe academic platform for education and discussion during a period of significant security risks. Professor Chayan believes that such support is urgently needed. Many young people who have fled Myanmar after the military coup are trapped in an uncertain situation. Without legal documents, they cannot move freely within Thailand, and if they return to Myanmar, they risk arrest or torture. Some of these young people were participants in the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM). This movement involved government employees and professionals nationwide refusing to work under military rule. Chayan warns that these young people may face blocked opportunities to continue their education. In his view, this loss will not only affect Myanmar. Thailand is facing an aging population and is increasingly reliant on migrant labor in agriculture, services, and manufacturing. Therefore, a weakened Myanmar will have repercussions for the entire region, he said. According to Professor Chayan's analysis, supporting the education of Myanmar's youth is not merely an act of charity. It is a long-term regional investment, crucial for the stability and development of not only Myanmar's future but also Thailand and the Southeast Asian region. To listen to the podcast in English The Insight Myanmar Podcast can be accessed at the following link: https://insightmyanmar.org/complete-shows/2026/5/25/episode-543-through-the-interregnum