Tropical Depression Luis may make landfall in Northern Luzon, track 'highly uncertain'

MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau is now seeing possible landfall for Tropical Depression Luis in Northern Luzon, but it noted that Luis’ track is “highly uncertain” and may still change. As of 10 pm on Sunday, August 2, Luis was already 200 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora, moving west northwest at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h). The tropical depression maintained its strength, with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 pm bulletin on Sunday that Luis could make landfall in Northern Luzon on Monday afternoon or evening, August 3. “Afterwards, it will slowly turn northeastward then east northeastward while moving away from the Philippine landmass,” added PAGASA. Luis is also projected to intensify into a tropical storm by Monday morning, but it could weaken back into a tropical depression after several hours. Eventually, it may be downgraded to a remnant low by Wednesday, August 5. Luis continues to affect nearly the entire Luzon. Within the next 48 hours, it is now expected to bring up to intense rain, particularly in the provinces of Zambales and Pangasinan, while at least 18 other areas may get heavy rain from the tropical depression. Floods and landslides could occur. Sunday evening, August 2, to Monday evening, August 3 Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Aurora, Quezon Monday evening, August 3, to Tuesday evening, August 4 Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Zambales, Pangasinan Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Sur, La Union, Benguet, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Rizal Elsewhere in Luzon, scattered rain and thunderstorms may persist because of Luis. PAGASA also warned the public that the southwest monsoon or habagat will be dumping rain, mainly in Luzon too: Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Occidental Mindoro Tuesday evening, August 4, to Wednesday evening, August 5 Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Antique The southwest monsoon will be enhanced by the tropical cyclone with the international name Dolphin, which is currently a typhoon outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It is located 3,000 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon as of 8 pm on Sunday, still moving west northwest at 25 km/h. Its maximum sustained winds decreased from 175 km/h to 165 km/h, while its gustiness eased from 215 km/h to 205 km/h. PAGASA Weather Specialist Grace Castañeda-Carpio earlier said Dolphin appears “less likely” to enter PAR, but the weather bureau is not ruling out this possibility. What is more certain is that Dolphin will enhance the southwest monsoon. Meanwhile, Signal No. 1 was lifted for portions of Bicol at 11 pm on Sunday, but new places in Northern Luzon and Central Luzon were added to the list. These areas will have strong winds due to Luis: southern part of Cagayan (Enrile, Tuguegarao City, Peñablanca) Isabela Quirino northern part of Aurora (Dinalungan, Casiguran, Dilasag, Dipaculao, Baler) Polillo Islands northern part of Camarines Norte (Daet, Talisay, Paracale, Jose Panganiban, Capalonga, Vinzons) PAGASA is not ruling out the possibility of raising Signal No. 2 if Luis becomes a tropical storm. The southwest monsoon and Luis’ periphery or outer bands are also bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas: Monday, August 3, and Tuesday, August 4 most of Luzon, most of Visayas, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Sarangani, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental On Monday, moderate to rough conditions are expected in the following seaboards: Eastern seaboards of Isabela and Davao Oriental; northeastern seaboard of Aurora – waves up to 2.5 meters high Eastern seaboards of Batanes, Cagayan, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Occidental; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands, Catanduanes, and Northern Samar; northern seaboards of Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Masbate; southern seaboard of Davao Oriental; western seaboard of Bataan – waves up to 2 meters high Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoiding sailing, if possible. After weakening into a remnant low by Wednesday, Luis could become “fully assimilated” or absorbed into Dolphin’s circulation. Luis is the Philippines’ 12th tropical cyclone for 2026, and the first for August. PAGASA earlier said two to four tropical cyclones could develop within or enter PAR during the month. – Rappler.com