PDP 2026 Draft Criticized for Ambiguity Despite Appealing Exterior

The draft of the next "National Power Development Plan (PDP) 2026," which will serve as a crucial guideline for Thailand's future electricity supply system, has begun its public hearing process. However, Mr. Trirat Sirichantaro, responsible for energy in the Democrat Party's economic team, has severely criticized the plan for its ambiguity and lack of sincerity. Trirat stated that the PDP 2026 draft "looks good on the outside, but is full of ambiguity on the inside." The plan's main themes are ideal goals that everyone can agree with, such as "decarbonization," "Net Zero," "electricity system stability," and "fair pricing." The draft presents four scenarios, outlining the proportion of renewable energy, power generation capacity, and retail electricity prices. For instance, the "Net Zero by Renewable Energy" scenario projects an 89% renewable energy share, a generation capacity of 253,100 MW by the end of the plan, and a retail price of 3.82 baht/kWh. However, Trirat questions the claim that retail prices will remain within the 3.82–3.88 baht/kWh range regardless of the chosen scenario. This is because the total generation capacity at the end of the plan varies significantly from 185,700 MW to 253,100 MW, yet the price remains almost constant. Furthermore, considering the electricity demand forecast for 2050 (B.E. 2593) is only 79,696 MW, if the plan proceeds as intended, it would result in an excess generation capacity of 106,000–173,000 MW, far exceeding demand. Trirat argues that with such a substantial excess capacity, the narrative of "electricity prices soaring due to excess capacity" would be invalidated, making it unrealistic for prices to be fixed at 3.88 baht/kWh. The plan lacks any disclosure of the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for each fuel, leaving out crucial information for the public to assess the feasibility of the projected prices. Trirat suspects that the plan might be using the term "energy transition" merely as a pretext to pass the plan, with the actual objective being to construct as many power plants as possible. He warns that "green" and "stable" electricity supply from renewable energy is not necessarily cheap. If prices are to be kept constant, the cost will be borne by the public, particularly low-income individuals who cannot afford rooftop solar panels or those living in condominiums. He points out that if a large number of people switch to self-generation, the government-contracted power plants will become even more surplus, and those who do not or cannot self-generate will bear the full cost for electricity during periods when solar power is unavailable. Drawing from his experience in constructing clean energy power plants, Trirat strongly questions whether this PDP plan is truly sincere towards the public, or if it is merely using the term "green energy" conveniently, similar to past loan applications worth 200 billion baht, without realistic prospects of achieving its goals.