Russia's oil crisis and the prospect of war

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, I have visited Russia every year. The attitude of the public has changed. Fuel shortages across Russia have already begun to cause trouble. But is Putin headed for a Soviet-era regime collapse? Written by Alexander Titov Public attitudes toward the war in Ukraine have changed in recent months. Fuel shortages have occurred across Russia as Ukrainian drones have attacked Russian oil infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is also keen to end the war from a "superior position". Russia's economic crisis has led to civil unrest and political instability. There are hopes that the current ruling government may fall. This kind of incident is not unprecedented in Russian history. The Soviet Union collapsed rapidly in 1991 amid economic and political crises. But this is what happened to Russia todayWhat are the odds? I have visited Russia every year since 2022 and have seen a dramatic change in public attitudes. In 2022, the focus was on survival and adaptation to the new current state of sanctions and war. Then, over the next few years, stability and improvement in the economy's ability to adaptThere was optimism. However, even before fuel shortages occur, there is talk of an economic recession in 2026. Because the economic sector has reached maximum capacity and military spending cannot be reduced. Raising interest and tax rates and shrinking the civil sector is the only way to control inflation and avoid budget deficits. In January 2026, the value-added tax (VAT) was increased from 20 percent to 22 percent, and small andTaxes on medium-sized businesses have also been raised. At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June, they predicted that tough times would continue for at least three years. The question now is whether these economic difficulties will lead to mass uprisings and dissension among elites, as in the late Soviet era. The collapse of the Soviet Union The Soviet Union collapsed under the leadership of Mikhail Gorbachev, who undertook reforms to liberalize the economic and political system. His decision to decentralize economic decision-making undermined the Soviet's planned economy and led to severe food shortages. Then, in 1989, the introduction of semi-democratic elections created an opportunity for opposition leaders such as Gorbachev's arch-rival Boris Yeltsin. That opportunity widened in 1990 when Gorbachev devolved power among the republics of the Soviet Union. A deepening economic crisisTogether, this led to Gorbachev's rapid loss of power and the disintegration of the Soviet Union itself. The situation in Russia today is different. Since 2000, Vladimir Putin has led the consolidation of authoritarianism. He weakened the weak democratic institutions inherited from his predecessor, Yeltsin, and increased control over the media. At the same time, the removal and extermination of political opponents such as Alexei NavalnyHorses were made. Putin has also threatened and dominated big business. This happened most prominently in the Yukos incident in 2003. At the time, Russia's richest man, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, was jailed for tax evasion and his oil company was seized. The Kremlin's level of control over politics and society in Ukraine in 2022It has become stronger since the start of the war. All unauthorized dissidents in Russia have been purged by imprisonment or exile. The business elite is also coming more under the control of the Kremlin; Especially because of the sanctions, many of them have returned to Russia from Western countries. In addition, the war strengthened the influence of the military-industrial sector and the military, including the siloviki (Russia's law enforcement agencies). All of these are dependent beneficiaries of the stability of the current governance system. Images of long lines at Russian gas stations lead to the conclusion that they resemble the Great Depression that brought down the Soviet Union. However, as someone who has personally experienced both, I can say that this is not the case. The current Russian economy is still viable. Despite four years of war and economic sanctions, the daily lives of most Russians have not changed significantly. The fuel shortage, which began in June 2026, may be the first real crisis affecting the majority of the population since the start of the war. Russian authorities also have some leeway to deal with the situation. They could further cut interest rates, which have already fallen to 14.5 percent in June from 21 percent in 2024. The ruble could also devalue to boost revenue from energy exports. Is the Russian economy getting more oil revenue because of the Iran war?It has been temporarily relieved. Despite the economic pressures, the Kremlin is not yet at the point where it will accept a complete change of course. At the same time, the overall balance of power in a war of attrition depends on the weakness of the other party. Right now, Ukraine is enjoying a good situation in the war, but its economy is running on Western financial support. Its biggest donor, the United States, stopped funding after Donald Trump came to power in 2025. The European Union (EU) was responsible for that expenditure. It has agreed to provide €90bn (£77bn) in aid over the next two years. But Ukraine needs more than that. Currently, Russia and Ukraine are side by side