US-China Nuclear Reactor Race Heats Up in Southeast Asia

Nuclear reactor exports are emerging as a significant arena of strategic competition in Southeast Asia, as nations in the region increasingly look towards nuclear energy to bolster their energy security. China, in its 15th Five-Year Plan, has articulated ambitions not only for domestic nuclear development but also to become a global leader in nuclear governance and reactor exports. Simultaneously, the United States, Japan, and South Korea announced a memorandum of cooperation to accelerate the deployment of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) in third countries, with a particular focus on the Indo-Pacific. This signals a heightened geopolitical contest for influence through nuclear technology. Southeast Asia faces significant energy security vulnerabilities, making enhanced energy supply and security crucial. Electricity demand is projected to grow substantially by 2030, driven by data centers, electric vehicles, and industrial needs. Consequently, countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam have set national targets to operate their first nuclear reactors before 2035, while Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, and Thailand are actively considering nuclear energy, with a specific interest in SMRs. Building and operating nuclear power plants involves substantial upfront costs and long construction timelines. While new reactor builds have been rare in the US and Europe, Asian countries like China and South Korea have demonstrated their capability to construct reactors on time and within budget. However, for new nuclear energy countries, establishing the entire infrastructure, including regulatory frameworks, human resources, and a safety culture, is a 10- to 15-year process, according to the IAEA. Major global reactor exporters include Russia, China, and the United States. Russia's Rosatom is attractive for its comprehensive fuel cycle services and build-own-operate model, though sanctions have impacted its capabilities. China's state-owned enterprises, CNNC and CGN, are key players, though its reactor exports have so far been limited to Pakistan under the Belt and Road Initiative. The US approach is driven by the private sector, with government support through programs like FIRST and financing tools from the Export-Import Bank of the United States and the International Development Finance Corporation. These initiatives aim to mitigate the high upfront investment costs. When selecting reactor suppliers, Southeast Asian nations weigh the US's strengths in technology, regulatory frameworks, nonproliferation, and safety culture against China's cost advantages and ability to meet deadlines. Many countries, including Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand, have signed 123 Agreements with the US, while Malaysia has secured an MoU for negotiations. China has engaged in civil nuclear cooperation with ASEAN since 2015, but the commercial operation timeline for its first SMR, the Linglong One, remains uncertain due to a lack of transparency. In contrast, the US has seen regulatory progress, with Indonesia's nuclear regulator granting a first-stage license to Thorcon International for its molten salt reactor. Information Source: The Diplomat Indonesia