El Niño's Impact: Northern Vietnam Sees Unusually Heavy Rains Amidst Summer

While Central and Southern Vietnam are experiencing higher temperatures and reduced rainfall due to El Niño, Northern Vietnam is facing unusually heavy rains despite the summer. According to Mai Van Khiêm, Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the heavy rainfall in the North is not a direct sign of El Niño but primarily due to short-term weather patterns, such as low-pressure systems and weakened tropical depressions. El Niño is typically known as a climate phenomenon that increases temperatures and the likelihood of heatwaves, while reducing seasonal rainfall in many parts of Vietnam. However, Khiêm explains that El Niño is a large-scale seasonal climate signal with a delay of about 2-3 months before its effects become apparent, and its impact is not uniform across regions. Historical El Niño years have also shown no consistent trend in rainfall for the North. On the other hand, looking at the summer as a whole, the North has still experienced harsh heat. From March to July, the North experienced nine widespread heatwaves, more than in recent years and above the average. Particularly, from late May to early June, some areas recorded temperatures exceeding historical records. Regarding rainfall, the total rainfall in the North from April to July was generally on par with the average. However, the rain tended to concentrate in short periods with very high intensity over narrow areas. This has increased the risk of flash floods, landslides, and waterlogging, giving residents the impression of more rain. The primary impacts of El Niño observed in June and July across the country include higher average temperatures and a tendency for rainfall deficits, especially in the Central, Central Highlands, and Southern regions. The Mekong Delta faces an increased risk of drought, water scarcity, and saltwater intrusion in the early dry season of 2027. El Niño is currently strengthening and is highly likely to reach a very strong intensity from the end of this year to early next year. Under this scenario, average temperatures nationwide are expected to be 0.5-1.5°C higher than the average by the end of 2026, with some areas potentially exceeding 2°C. This winter is predicted to be warmer, with cold air arriving later. The number of typhoons and tropical depressions in the East Sea is expected to be lower than average, but vigilance against unusually strong storms is still necessary. Central regions may experience rainfall deficits even during the main rainy season months. The rainy season in the Central, Central Highlands, and Southern regions could end earlier, further increasing the risk of drought, water scarcity, and saltwater intrusion in the early dry season of 2027. Vietnamese meteorological authorities are assessing the impacts on rainfall, heatwaves, droughts, water scarcity, and saltwater intrusion based on two scenarios: El Niño weakening in early 2027 or persisting until mid-2027. Source: The Saigon Times