Philippine Poultry Growers Skeptical of 2027 Growth Amid High Fuel Costs, Inflation

THE United Broiler Raisers Association (UBRA) said growth prospects for 2027 remain clouded due to the fuel crisis, the weak peso, and the resulting inflationary conditions. “Unless, by some miracle, the inflationary pressure from high oil prices coupled with the depreciation of the peso are resolved in 2027, it is rather difficult to discern an increase in demand by that time,” UBRA Chairman Elias Jose M. Inciong told BusinessWorld via Viber. Mr. Inciong said the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projection of a 14.7% jump in chicken meat imports may be rooted in a serious misreading of the demand situation by inexperienced importers, which he described as the prevailing majority in the poultry industry. Mr. Inciong also questioned the USDA’s 8.6% growth forecast for poultry consumption. “I do not see where the growth will originate. The substitution effect attributed to the problems of the hog industry had been overstated for the last 24 months,” Mr. Inciong said, referring to expectations that consumers will favor chicken consumption over pork because of hog shortages caused by African Swine Fever. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service in Manila forecast chicken meat production in the Philippines to increase 5.8% to 1.92 million metric tons (MMT) driven by expanded poultry operations, improved production efficiency through labor- and time-saving technologies, and a strategic push towards higher value-added products that meet consumer demand and generate stronger profit margins for companies. The USDA projected poultry imports to also increase 14.7% to 780,000 MT due to rising demand from food manufacturing and food service companies, driven by population growth and a projected improved economic performance for 2027, with imports from Brazil expected to benefit from competitive pricing. Chicken meat consumption was estimated by the USDA to rise 8.6% to 2.7 MMT, also driven by population growth and an improved economic outlook for next year, as well as the affordability and availability of chicken and chicken products. Mr. Inciong said UBRA also disagrees with the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) data on farmgate prices, calling them “too high and not reflective of the realities on the ground.” The PSA reported that the average farmgate price of broiler chicken declined 8.1% year on year to P116.38 per kilogram on a liveweight basis in the second quarter.