Youth, Armed Groups, and the Drug Economy in Eastern Shan State

Antonio Graceffo Opium cultivation across Burma (Myanmar) rose 17 percent this year. In Eastern Shan State it rose 32 percent, the sharpest increase of any growing region in the country, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime. South Shan still holds the largest share of the crop, accounting for 44 percent of the country’s opium fields, up 13 percent year on year. Total production rose only marginally, reaching roughly 1,010 metric tons. Opium yields fell from 22 to 19 kilograms per hectare, amid disrupted farming conditions tied to the wider conflict. Burma’s drug economy extends beyond opium into synthetic drugs. UNODC recorded a record 236 tons of methamphetamine seized across East and Southeast Asia in 2024, a 24 percent jump from 2023, with Shan State named as the source region. That total covers two different products. One is high-purity crystal meth. The other is a low-purity methamphetamine tablet cut with caffeine, known regionally as yaba, or yama. Thailand alone seized one billion yaba tablets trafficked from Myanmar in 2024. Wholesale meth prices in production areas have fallen to as low as $400 per kilogram, a sign of oversupply. The growth of the illegal drug trade is closely tied to the region’s armed groups, which need cash to survive. They generate some revenue by taxing local families, forcing them to surrender a portion of their income or agricultural production. Because the civilian population is already impoverished, these taxes are financially devastating. Even so, they provide only a fraction of the funds needed to buy weapons and ammunition and feed their soldiers. As a result, the armed groups rely on a range of illicit enterprises, including drug trafficking, human trafficking, illegal logging, and illegal mineral extraction. For young people, the war-decimated economy offers few legitimate opportunities. High unemployment, irregular income, and the lack of stable livelihoods make it difficult for many families to meet their basic needs. According to a local reporter, some young people, particularly those between the ages of 15 and 35, turn to the drug trade because it pays far better than legal work, where wages can be less than $3 per day. However, the trade also exposes them to violence, arrest, exploitation, and long-term social harm. For many, participation is driven by necessity in the face of limited economic alternatives or by intimidation and coercion. A World Bank study tracked employment in townships suited to poppy cultivation, mainly the high-altitude areas of Shan, Kayah, Kayin, and Chin states, between 2017 and 2022. In those townships, agricultural employment rose by 22 percentage points, while mining and construction employment fell by 13 points. Nationally, the opposite occurred: agricultural employment declined, while mining, construction, and retail jobsincreased. Self-employment in the poppy-growing townships fell by 26 percentage points, while casual wage labor rose by 27 points, reflecting a shift toward hired agricultural work tied to the poppy harvest cycle. Average agricultural wages also increased considerably during the same period. Households in Chin State told researchers that clearing, planting, and harvesting poppy fields paid roughly three times the standard daily wage for farm work, although the work lasted only one to two weeks each season. Another factor driving young people into the drug trade is forced conscription. The junta’s People’s Military Service Law was reactivated in February 2024. It requires men aged 18 to 35 and women aged 18 to 27 to serve. By mid-December 2025, the regime had opened 20 training batches. It had recruited an estimated 100,000 new soldiers, largely through methods residents describe as coercive. Opposition ranks have drawnfrom the same pool. The People’s Defense Force grew from a claimed 65,000 fighters in 2022 to 85,000 by 2024. Both sides are absorbing young men. The drug trade remains one of the few income paths left outside of the military. The interaction between armed conflict, illicit economic activity, weak state institutions, and youth unemployment has created a cycle that is difficult to break. Addressing these challenges would require not only stronger law enforcement and regional cooperation but also expanded education, vocational training, legitimate employment opportunities, and sustainable economic development for communities affected by conflict. Reducing the economic incentives for participation in illicit activities is essential to improving long-term stability and protecting young people from exploitation. However, because many of the armed groups benefit financially from the illegal trade, they have little incentive to end it. Nang Lurn Kham, a 42-year-old Shan widow from a township near the border with Thailand’s Chiang Mai Province, described how her family’s life changed after her husband became involved in cross-border drug trafficking. She said her husband was arrested by the Thai military three years ago while carrying drugs across the border. Before he left, he told her he had friends involved in a business that paid well, and thathe would be gone only a week. She said, “I did not know that the work involved transporting drugs. If I had known, I would never have allowed him to go.” About two weeks later, some of his friends came to her house and explained what had happened. They told her that Thai soldiers had spotted the group crossing the border and ordered them to stop. Some of the men threw away their backpacks and escaped back into Myanmar, but her husband and severalothers were captured. A few months later, her husband’s boss visited her and promised they would try to help get him out of prison. But she said, “My husband became increasingly stressed and ill while in detention,” according to what she was told, prison conditions were difficult. After several months, he died in custody. Left to raise their two children alone, she opened a small kindergarten in her home, caring forchildren between the ages of six and ten and charging 400 Thai baht (about $13 USD) per student each month. A 25-year-old Christian Lahu man, whose identity has been withheld for security reasons, lives in Ban Huay Aw, Pong Pha Khaem Sub-township, Mong Ton Township, near the border with Thailand’s Chiang Mai Province. He is unmarried and is the primary income earner for his family, which includes his younger brother and sister. He described how economic hardship has pushed young people in his village into cross-border drug trafficking. Over the past five years, he said, many young people, most between the ages of 14 and 18, have disappeared from the village after leaving to work as drug couriers transporting narcotics across the border. He said, “For many of them, this seemed like the only way to earn money.” After completing a single trip, they could earn enough to live on for several months, a reality that has drawn growing numbers of young people