Reviewing China's missile launches

Photo: A long-range intercontinental ballistic missile test-launched by China's nuclear-powered submarine is seen in the South Pacific Ocean on July 6, 2026, in a photo released by Xinhua News Agency. (Li Xiangchao/Xinhua via AP) Taipei Times China conducted a submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile test on July 6, and wants the world to see it as a normal military exercise. However, according to the gradually emerging information, it is impossible to consider this action as routine. China on July 6 At 12:01 p.m., a nuclear-powered submarine launched an intercontinental ballistic missile across the Pacific Ocean. Previously, the Chinese government had never publicly confirmed such a move. According to navigational warnings, planners initially considered two launch routes. One is the path that will be launched from the Bohai Sea and pass over Japan. The other one is likely to launch from the South China Sea and pass over the Philippines. In the end, only the second route seems to have been implemented. Chinese authorities said the test was part of the annual training program of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). He said that no country was targeted and that the relevant governments had been informed in advance. This time also coincided with the opening of the Chinese-Russian joint naval exercise Joint Sea in Chintaung, China. However, there is no evidence that Russia was directly involved in the launch. Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control expert at the Middlebury Institute, said the test should not be over-interpreted. He said regular testing of missile systems is a natural step for nuclear-armed countries. However, Lewis' own review of the data found that the missile's range was only about 7,000 km, more consistent with the older JL-2 type than the longer-range JL-3 type that Chinese critics initially claimed. That highlights how secretive China is about information. Taiwan's National Security Council responded more bluntly. Within hours of the missile launch, Secretary General Joseph Wu released a flight path map. The missile was identified as a Type 094 submarine-launched JL-2. The trend it shows is the Philippines. Pang, It flew about 6,300 kilometers over Guam and Micronesia before landing in the Pacific Ocean near the island nation of Nauru. That description is also largely consistent with informal calculations circulating online. Wu described the launch as an act of aggression that harmed regional stability. He also became the first government-affiliated source to specify the type of missile used in the test. But other experts, including top academics studying China's nuclear forces, say caution is warranted as many details of the operation remain unconfirmed, but they cannot deny that the incident is part of a broader Chinese strategic plan. That pattern becomes clearer in conjunction with China's September 2024 test launch of a DF-31AG intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean. In that test, the missile flew more than 11,000 kilometers from Hainan Island to the sea near French Polynesia. At that time, it was described as a normal test. However, China later supported the testThere have been reports that tracking ships have been pre-positioned along the Pacific Ocean. It showed how great the preparation for the test was. This year's test continued in that fashion, but added an important element. It is a submarine-based missile. In addition to being able to launch from the sea, it also demonstrates China's improved nuclear deterrence capability. It signals the ability to react and attack. The reactions of countries in the Pacific show the alarming nature of this experiment. The Australian Prime Minister called this action a provocation. Solomon Islands leaders also criticized the behavior of a partner country as inconsistent. New Zealand has also objected to the test launch of a nuclear-capable missile system in the South Pacific nuclear-free zone. He pointed out that it was the second time in recent years. It also coincides with the signing of a new defense agreement between Australia and Fiji, further highlighting the fact that Pacific island nations are becoming a region of heightened strategic competition. Japan is at the center of the political implications. The Tokyo government said that the missile did not pass through Japanese airspace, but only from the south of Japan. Therefore, it may have been launched from the South China Sea. Initially, there were speculations that it passed over Japan. It had special significance as it happened before the anniversary of the Marco Polo Bridge incident on July 7th, which was the beginning of the Sino-Japanese conflict. That same week, China's state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, maker of the JL series of missiles, released a poster commemorating the start of the Sino-Japanese War in 1937. Missile imagery was used in the design. A broader interpretation due to the simultaneous presentation of the actual missile test and the historical messageIt became a concern. If you look at the section, you can give reasons for each one. Missile testing is common for nuclear nations. Flying over international waters is not unusual. Political messages using historical monuments are also common in China. But what's important is that all of these things come together at once. The technology in this testnot knowing the exact location, Strategically wide flight path; Timed symbolic use and local immediate responses are seen during an event called a normal experiment. omitting the type of missile; By choosing a route that traverses key points in the Indo-Pacific security architecture and implicitly using historical narratives, China is crafting a multi-layered message that can be interpreted from different perspectives. For the US, it is China's naval base