PH BPO Jobs Showing Resilience Amid AI Disruption, HSBC Says

The Philippines’ service export industry is showing resilience despite disruptions from artificial intelligence (AI), with employment continuing to grow as AI may be helping workers become more productive, Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. (HSBC) said. The outsourcing industry is adjusting as some jobs become obsolete while demand grows for others that are benefiting from AI, HSBC Global Investment Research said in a note. The shift is occurring not only in the Philippines but also in India, another major outsourcing hub, the bank said. So far, there has been no “apocalypse” in jobs, HSBC said. Employment in information technology and professional, scientific and technical activities has been rising in the Philippines since 2022, the bank noted, while services exports have been on an upward trend since 2006. The resilience of the industry could simply mean that AI has yet to make a significant impact, HSBC said, though the bank argued that there is another possibility: AI may be strengthening the very outsourcing industries it is expected to disrupt. “It might also be that AI actually supports BPO (business process outsourcing) to economies like India and the Philippines by making local workers more productive, quality control easier and remote processing even more feasible,” HSBC said. “So far, at least, no AI-driven collapse.” The outlook for the Philippine outsourcing industry has nonetheless weakened. The Information Technology and Business Process Association of the Philippines, the industry’s umbrella group, now expects revenue to reach between $43.3 billion and $50.5 billion by 2028. That is a sharp downgrade from the $59 billion target set when the group launched its six-year industry roadmap in 2022. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, meanwhile, expects BPO revenue to grow 2.5 percent this year, down from its previous forecast of 4 percent. It also cut its forecast for growth in 2027 to 3 percent from 4 percent.