Afghanistan's Return Crisis: Why Sending People Back Is Not a Durable Solution

Read The Diplomat, Know The Asia-Pacific The shift in policies from protection to return assumes that return represents a durable solution. In August 2021, following the Taliban’s return to power, governments around the world scrambled to evacuate Afghans facing immediate protection concerns. An estimated 124,000 people were evacuated in the weeks following the shift in leadership. Many others joined the millions of Afghans already living in neighboring countries such as Iran and Pakistan. Five years on, the policy environment has shifted dramatically. In neighboring countries, but also in Europe, the focus has evolved from a policy of protection to one of return. This shift assumes that return – particularly in the current context – represents a durable solution. This policy shift is occurring against a backdrop of fragility and uncertainty in Afghanistan, whereby the underlying drivers of displacement remain the same. Since 2023, more than 6 million Afghans have returned to Afghanistan from Pakistan and Iran. Recent research by the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) shows that approximately 80 percent of surveyed Afghan returnees had been deported or expelled, meaning a significant portion of individuals returned involuntarily. Their return to Afghanistan was under conditions of pressure, compulsion, coercion, or direct involuntary return. For many returnees, this has meant leaving behind friends, family, possessions, livelihoods, and support networks. Many arrive with no housing, limited livelihoods, and scarce employment opportunities. This sets the foundation for significant difficulty in reintegration. These difficulties are likely to worsen as return pressures expand beyond countries such as Pakistan and Iran to nations much further afield. Beyond the large-scale returns from neighboring countries over recent years, Europe appears to be following a similar trajectory and is working toward formalizing deportation and return pathways for Afghans. In late June, a Taliban delegation travelled to Brussels for a meeting with representatives of 15 European countries and members of the European Commission to discuss return and readmission for Afghans. This “technical level” meeting represents a clear indication of the intentions of many European States to expand and formalize their return arrangements. Returning to What? Whether Afghans are returning from neighboring states or from other locations such as Europe, a fundamental condition of their return should be that it is voluntary, dignified and safe. Given the current political, economic, and social context in Afghanistan, it is unlikely that each of these preconditions can be met. This is especially true when considering the various profiles of people returning, including those from ethnic and religious minorities, those who are perceived to oppose the current de facto authorities, or have other risk factors. Beyond the risk profiles, the conditions in Afghanistan for returnees remain challenging. For example, MMC data shows that nearly 40 percent of returnee respondents did not have access to health care and more than half were living in some form of inadequate housing. For many, physical return is just the first step and does not translate into reintegration or an ability to rebuild a life in safety or dignity. Although overall levels of violence in Afghanistan have declined since the August 2021 takeover, Afghanistan remains a complex humanitarian crisis. This has been compounded following the closure of USAID and the evaporation of large swathes of humanitarian funding over the past 18 months. As a country grappling with complex and dire humanitarian needs, receiving and absorbing millions of returning Afghans is certain to result in many people struggling with lack of accommodation, lack of livelihoods, and limited support networks. MMC data on Afghan returns highlight that many struggle to find work, with less than 7 percent of women and only 59 percent of men finding income generating opportunities. Given the restrictions against women, their difficulty is much worse. For Afghan Women, Return Brings Additional Barriers Afghan women face an additional layer of vulnerability after return. Since 2021, women’s fundamental rights have been severely restricted: girls above the age of 12 have been banned from attending school, women have been prohibited from working in many sectors, and their movement has been controlled through the requirement of a mahram, a male relative. Their access to public space and participation in decision-making have also been restricted. In addition to these restrictions, access to aid is more challenging for female compared to male returnees. MMC data highlight that more than half of the returnees (53 percent) have not received any assistance since returning, with women being especially excluded (65 percent). This is not surprising given the constraints on women’s freedom of movement, which leave them with few opportunities to work, study, or participate in public life, but also to access aid. These challenges are more acute for women who belong to ethnic or religious minorities, and thereby face overlapping vulnerabilities linked to both gender and identity. As a result, Afghan women face structural challenges, making their reintegration even more difficult. As outlined in MMC data, 61 percent of women reported being not very satisfied or strongly dissatisfied with their lives in Afghanistan. These challenges raise a broader question: how can return be considered sustainable when women and other vulnerable groups continue to face barriers that prevent them from rebuilding safe, dignified, and meaningful lives after return? Moving Beyond Return to Holistic Solutions for Afghans Uncertainty, humanitarian crises and instability are nothing new for generations of Afghans. Since the early 1970s, the country has experienced multiple political transitions, civil conflict and serious humanitarian needs. In 2026, Afghanistan remains as complex as ever, and in desperate need of economic stability, rights promotion, basic service provision and development. Investment that facilitates and fosters reintegration is needed – not investment in the act of returns itself. The importance of investing in safe returns and reintegration cannot be undervalued, as these processes will shape Afghan society over the long term. Affected persons including women must be central to these discussions. It is crucial that European countries and members of the European Commission are not only guided by the goal of return, but also by their stated commitment to democratic values and human rights. Any discussion on returns must place safe reintegration at the center, rather than treating return itself – and return alone – as the endpoint. An important avenue to both spotlight and address the current return trajectory is through the Support Platform of the Solutions Strategy for Afghan Refugees (SSAR), which i