‘Very Strong’ El Niño Expected to Persist Until Early 2027

MANILA, Philippines — A “very strong” El Niño is expected next month and is likely to intensify by the first half of 2027, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said yesterday. “This situation needs to be taken seriously, particularly because of its potential impacts on rainfall and water resources,” PAGASA administrator Nathaniel Servando told reporters at a press conference. The Philippines has experienced strong to very strong El Niño events before, including those in 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2017. PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis described the warming as “unprecedented in terms of intensity.” As of Monday, around 45 provinces have experienced rainfall deficits since the El Niño began this year. By October, the amount of rainfall will be “below normal” in Luzon, Visayas and Caraga while near-normal over Northern Luzon and Southern Mindanao. The amount of rainfall will be “way below normal” in November and dwindle to “significant reduction” by December, and last till the first quarter of 2027. From October to December, only one to two tropical cyclones will be expected to enter or develop inside the Philippine area of responsibility. By January 2027, up to one tropical cyclone will be expected to enter or develop inside PAR and there will be a slim chance of another by February and March. PAGASA vowed that they will help with mitigation efforts especially for affected sectors like agriculture, water supply, energy and public health.