Arakan Army's Path to Recognition: Conditions on Rohingya Rights and Accountability

The Arakan Army (AA), which has been expanding its de facto control in Myanmar's Rakhine State, is seeking international recognition. However, a series of reports detailing severe human rights violations by the AA against the Rohingya minority present significant ethical and practical challenges to any such recognition. A recent investigative report by Human Rights Watch confirmed that the AA massacred at least 170 Rohingya civilians, including 90 children, in the village of Hoyyar Siri in Buthidaung Township on May 2, 2024. This incident is only a fraction of the AA's documented abuses against the Rohingya. Since gaining control of much of Rakhine State in 2023-2024, the AA has expelled over 150,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh, committed war crimes including massacres, rape, and arson, and imposed severe restrictions, extortion, and forced conscription. The AA's commander-in-chief, Major General Twan Mrat Naing, has publicly denied the distinct identity of the Rohingya, referring to them as "Bengalis." While denying the distinct identity of the Rohingya, who constituted between 25-30 percent of Rakhine State's population before 2017, the AA is seeking international recognition for its de facto control. Leveraging the state's geostrategic importance, the AA is attempting to gain recognition from external actors with political, economic, and strategic interests in the region, including China, India, and Bangladesh. Rakhine State is rich in oil and natural gas reserves, offers strategic access to the Indian Ocean, and hosts key Sino-Indian geo-strategic projects. Under international law, the recognition of states and governments is a complex issue. The AA has not yet declared independence, making the recognition of an independent Rakhine State premature. However, the AA has formed the Arakan People's Revolutionary Government (APRG), functioning as a de facto administration. Currently, Rakhine State is divided, with the AA controlling approximately 90 percent of its territory, while the Myanmar Union Government nominally retains authority. Given the AA's substantial control, some countries have engaged with the group to safeguard their interests. However, any form of recognition for the APRG hinges on relations with the Myanmar Union Government, the trajectory of the civil war, and the urgency of regional interests. Crucially, the AA must recognize the distinct identity of the Rohingya, commit to their safe and dignified repatriation, establish a democratic and inclusive polity, and adopt a more conciliatory stance towards regional actors. These conditions are vital for any potential recognition.