Between battlefield attrition and diplomatic maneuvers: The escalating conflict in Myanmar

A report published by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Project today states that the Myanmar regime’s “100-day peace plan,” which ended on July 31, served as a tactical mechanism to manage conflict, fragment resistance forces, and project governance stability rather than a genuine effort toward political resolution. ACLED’s assessment indicates that the regime continues to rely primarily on military offensives and economic containment to re-establish control. 1. Core Military Strategy: Resistance Fragmentation and Border Offensives ACLED highlights that the regime’s military operations focus on isolating post-coup the People’s Defense Force (PDF) from established Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs): 2. Escalation over Extractive Resource Control ACLED identifies competition over natural resources as a primary driver of ongoing conflict, as both regime and resistance forces seek revenue to sustain prolonged operations: 3. Six-Month Conflict Forecast: Pivot to Central Myanmar ACLED projects that over the next six months, the military will redeploy battalions freed by peripheral ceasefires to central Myanmar—specifically the Sagaing, Magway, and Mandalay regions: While the regime is expected to maintain overall military ascendancy in central areas, ACLED assesses that an existential or decisive victory against the broader resistance remains unlikely. 4. Structural Obstacles to Peace ACLED emphasizes that the peace process excludes primary combatants: 5. Humanitarian and Economic Consequences ACLED warns that prolonged attrition will worsen the national socio-economic crisis: