BARMM Election Faces Low Turnout Risk Amid Violence, Voter Uncertainty

The first parliamentary election in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), a predominantly Muslim region in the southern Philippines, is approaching on September 14, with concerns rising over potentially low voter turnout. This could jeopardize the target of 70% to 75% participation that election officials are counting on. Key factors contributing to this risk include a surge in violent incidents and voter distrust and uncertainty regarding the new political system. Climate Conflict Action Asia (CCAA), a group monitoring conflict in the region, has warned that violence and low public confidence in the electoral process could depress turnout and undermine the election's credibility. This warning carries particular weight for the election, which is meant to mark the start of a new chapter for BARMM, established in 2019 following a 2014 peace agreement between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). However, CCAA's monitoring suggests that forces the peace process aimed to overcome—such as the proliferation of firearms, clan rivalries, political polarization, extremist violence, and distrust of government—remain powerful enough to influence participation. Despite a gun ban implemented during the election period, gun-related incidents and deaths have shown an increasing trend, indicating that violence has not been eradicated. This suggests a deeper issue that cannot be resolved solely by election security measures. CCAA's Critical Events Monitoring System recorded 58 gun-related incidents from July 16 to August 31, after the election gun ban in the region took effect. This compared to 44 incidents from June 1 to July 15, before the ban. Deaths from gun-related violence also increased, from 34 before the ban to 39 afterward. These figures do not necessarily mean the gun ban factored into the increase, but they show that restrictions on firearms had not produced the expected reduction in violence. Instead, violence continued in communities where politics, clan loyalties, and access to firearms overlap. An earlier assessment by the International Crisis Group found that over a decade after the peace agreement, clan feuds, political rivalries, and criminal networks continued to thrive where state institutions remained weak. On September 8, the Lanao del Sur-based Moro Consensus Group (MCG) called on candidates, security forces, and voters to ensure a peaceful and credible election. MCG chairman Drieza Lininding urged political parties and candidates to avoid violence, vote-buying, harassment, and intimidation, and to respect voters' rights. The group also called on security agencies to remain neutral and enforce election laws without bias. MCG stated that Bangsamoro voters, including Muslims, indigenous peoples, Christians, women, and youth, should be able to participate without fear. They urged leaders and politicians to respect the outcome, emphasizing that "peace is our shared responsibility." Tensions have been high, with CCAA noting that an ambush on Bangsamoro interim Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua on August 15 deepened divisions within the MILF and intensified political polarization. In Maguindanao del Sur, a recurring clan feud displaced families in late August. In Basilan, arrest warrants were issued against a mayor and others over an ambush, shortly before the parliamentary election. The government has imposed a gun ban and deployed military personnel. However, CCAA pointed to the close links between armed groups, political parties, and local power structures in some areas. Questions were also raised about the armed capability of the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), the MILF's political party, and the lack of concrete steps toward decommissioning MILF-linked weapons and forces. Guidelines governing ceasefire-related functions during the election were signed on August 31. Two days later, the military stopped an MILF convoy in Lanao del Norte, a province that did not join BARMM. The military urged the MILF to coordinate movements through established peace process mechanisms. Beyond security, voter uncertainty about the new parliamentary system is a significant issue. CCAA interviews revealed that some voters were unsure how to vote, while others had received little voter education. Political parties were accused of using voter education for campaigning, telling people whom to support rather than explaining the system. The shift from familiar local elections to a regional legislature with unfamiliar parties and districts poses a challenge. This lack of understanding makes voters vulnerable, especially if electoral boards come under pressure from political groups. CCAA suggests that weak participation could signal not just confusion but a deeper lack of faith in the BARMM government. Source: Rappler Philippines