El Niño Impact on Rice Harvest May Be Less Than Feared

MANILA, Philippines — The Department of Agriculture has revised its rice production projections, narrowing the potential El Niño-induced decline this year to about 400,000 metric tons (MT). Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said dams filling up from recent rains brought by the southwest monsoon could significantly reduce the effects of the incoming dry spell on local rice harvest. “We were assuming that the dams will have lower levels starting the next planting season, but due to the habagat, there’s hope that our earlier projections could be slashed by half,” he added. Tiu Laurel said under the worst-case scenario, local palay or unmilled rice harvest could drop by between 300,000 MT and 400,000 MT this year due to the prolonged dry spell. This marks a notable improvement from the agency’s earlier projections of a 700,000-MT drop due to El Niño. The weather disturbance, which is expected to last until early next year, is likely to bring extended dry spells, drought and intense heat waves across much of the country. Warmer-than-average ocean temperatures may also heighten the risk of stronger typhoons, even as overall rainfall diminishes. “Overall, the habagat was helpful, but I hope it doesn’t drag on any longer,” Tiu Laurel added. Total agricultural damage caused by recent storms and exacerbated by the southwest monsoon amounted to P4.13 billion, with losses of about 100,602 MT across 81,383 hectares of farmland in eight regions. The storms have caused significant impact on rice, high-value crops and fisheries. Tiu Laurel said earlier that the country must import rice after the harvest season to bolster supply ahead of El Niño. The expected drop in output could push imports up by about five million metric tons, with total shipments already exceeding last year’s 3.39 million MT. Data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showed rice imports had reached 3.46 million MT as of Aug. 13.