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Myanmar’s democracy movement and the new rules of global power

Guest contributor Napas Thein For decades, pro-democracy actors in Myanmar appealed to the international community through the language of liberal internationalism: human rights, multilateralism, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), democracy promotion, and the rules-based international order. However, the rules of the global world order are changing and democratic actors need to reassess their strategies. They need to focus on key issues that they can build pragmatic coalitions around, oftentimes with unlikely partners. Failing to do so will just mean giving up ground in the international community to the junta. U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House accelerated divisions in the global order away from liberal internationalism and towards transactional and competitive geopolitics. The abandonment of multilateralism and weakened international institutions has pushed middle powers such as Canada, Australia, Japan, and the United Kingdom to rethink their foreign policy objectives. For example, earlier this year when Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described this geopolitical rupture in his famous speech at Davos. He argued that traditional multilateral institutions have struggled to respond effectively to modern crises, and he instead called for a new framework of international engagement which scholars call “variable geometry.” To the uninitiated, the concept of variable geometry in foreign policy lies somewhere between traditional multilateralism (state powers engaged through the U.N. and The Hague) and pure bilateralism (direct country-to-country engagement). Instead of relying on universal consensus through international institutions, countries form flexible, issue-specific coalitions that involve relevant actors. These coalitions shift depending on the issue at hand, whether it be security, trade, migration, humanitarian assistance, technology, or regional stability. People in Myanmar already understand this way of engagement. Myanmar’s conflict landscape has long operated through overlapping networks of states, internal alliances, ethnic resistance organizations, civil society groups, humanitarian actors, diaspora networks, and informal diplomatic channels. It can be argued that the resistance has been so resilient because groups have been willing to cooperate and pivot amidst disagreement. But, as we’ve recently seen, countries like Canada are increasingly adopting a more pragmatic trade-based posture, abandoning idealistic foreign policies of the past. For example, this year alone, Canada has cautiously re-engaged with countries such as China and India to normalize trade relations, despite severe diplomatic tensions in recent years. Canada is also pursuing deeper economic ties across Southeast Asia while strengthening security and democratic partnerships elsewhere. Similar trade-focused approaches over the past decade are visible in Australia, Japan, and the U.K. This does not necessarily mean that Canada and its like-minded middle-power allies are abandoning democratic values altogether to focus on trade. Groups of countries and actors can still collaborate on the international stage to address key issues. Case study: Ukraine and its “coalition of the willing”. The international response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has increasingly relied not on universal consensus through the U.N., but through this evolving coalition of the willing (through overlapping arrangements involving NATO members, European states and friendly states, private industry, and non-state actors coordinating military, economic, intelligence, and humanitarian aid in support of Ukraine against Russian aggression). The variable geometry-style shape of the response to Ukraine is unlikely in the Myanmar context, even among members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Myanmar’s immediate neighbours. Simply put, Myanmar does not reach the level of political prioritization that Western nations face. With that said, how can we shift towards making values work in practice? Myanmar’s democratic movement, and in particular the newly formed Steering Council for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union (SCEF), should adapt accordingly by thinking strategically on an issue-by-issue basis with key stakeholders. Instead of viewing diplomacy solely through traditional multilateral and bilateral channels, pro-democracy actors should pursue targeted issue-based coalitions with both traditional allies and unlikely partners. Below are some key and early ways they can do this: Humanitarian coalition engagement — Canada, Australia, Japan, the U.K., the E.U., ASEAN, India, Bangladesh, and China The collapse of USAID and the reduction in international humanitarian funding have created major gaps across the region. Thailand and Bangladesh continue to absorb refugee pressures while local aid networks inside Myanmar and along borderlands face constraints. In this environment, flexible coalitions involving middle powers, ASEAN actors, China, India, Bangladesh, ethnic resistance organizations, and local humanitarian groups may prove more effective than rigid multilateral frameworks that remain constrained by Naypyidaw. Importantly, much of Myanmar’s humanitarian need exists outside military-controlled territory, including through the ASEAN Humanitarian Assistance (AHA Center) program and beyond. Minilateral diplomacy and Track 1, 1.5, and 2 dialogues — Canada, Australia, the E.U., and ASEAN member states These dialogues are often dismissed as symbolic exercises or report-generating forums. In reality, they have become important incubators for policy experimentation, conflict management ideas, humanitarian coordination, and regional early-warning systems. Discussions surrounding cyber scam centres, human trafficking, rare earth supply chains, and cross-border instability increasingly demonstrate that Myanmar’s crisis is no longer confined within its borders. The Rohingya crisis — Canada, Australia, the U.K., the E.U., Japan, ASEAN, China, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and Bangladesh Bangladesh cannot sustainably shoulder the burden alone. Former interim Bangladesh leader Muhammad Yunus has openly warned that reductions in international aid threaten the long-term viability of refugee support operations. Even China, historically cautious on the issue, has delivered some humanitarian support to the Rohingya. This creates openings for broader burden-sharing coalitions involving ASEAN states, states in the OIC, Japan, Canada, Australia, China, and international humanitarian actors, with the Rohingya included in Myanmar’s political dialogue. Release of Aung San Suu Kyi — Canada, Australia, the U.K., the U.S., Japan, ASEAN, China For many in the West, cooperation with China on Myanmar remains politically uncomfortable. Yet Beijing possesses far greater leverage over Myanmar’s junta than any Western government. China has historicall

ONE NEWS

Must work to import essential raw materials

It is necessary to work to import essential raw materials if there is a need, as the production of value-added products based on raw materials that already exist within our region and domestically is the most certain pro

ONE NEWS

Need to successfully plant over 21 million target trees

It is necessary to successfully plant over 21 million trees targeted for planting this year as part of the Special Greening Project, said Head of State Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. The Senior General made these remark

Khit Thit Media

63 Junta Members Dead Across Myanmar

Yangon, June 25 According to information received across Myanmar on June 25, it has been learned that 63 junta members have died, based on statements and reports from People's Defense Forces. Khit Thit Media makes it kno

Mizzima English

Spring Revolution Daily News for 25 June

The National Unity Government (NUG) -In Myaing Township of Magway Unit, Magway People’s Defence Force managed to attack via two suicidal drones at a junta’s Mi-17 helicopter landing in Pyusawti Militia-controlled Twinma

ONE NEWS

To ensure that the machine does not use oil properly

U Kyaw Naing Win, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Electricity and Energy, said that we are working to ensure that the people have the right to use energy at a reasonable price and that there is no shortage of fuel. On

ONE NEWS

Border Crossing Permit Books to be Sent to Muse Again

Border crossing permit (BP) books will be sent to Muse Township in northern Shan State to facilitate the travel of local residents to Ruili City in China, according to Union Minister U Myint Kyaw of the Ministry of Immig

Mizzima (Burmese)

AYA Bank admitted that some banking information was leaked

The world-famous hacker group Lapsus$ broke into AYA Bank, one of Myanmar's leading private banks, and obtained customer information. They also threatened to sell the information on the dark web if they did not pay a cer

Mizzima (Burmese)

June 25 7 p.m. The

- AYA Bank admitted that some banking information was leaked -During the rainy season, malaria and dengue fever are common in IDPs, and they face a shortage of medicine -Due to the fighting on the Kale-Tamu road, the flo

Mizzima (Burmese)

Spring Revolution Daily Notes (25 June 2026)

Government of National Unity The spring revolution is not only for the restoration of democracy, but equality among all ethnic groups. Daw Zin Ma Aung, Union Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the National Un

Myanmar International TV

Pyithu Hluttaw Session: 14th day of 2nd regular session held

The 14th day of the Second Regular Session of Third Pyithu Hluttaw was held today, June 25, at 10:30 AM in the Pyithu Hluttaw meeting hall in Nay Pyi Taw. Out of the (351) eligible Hluttaw representatives, (347) were in

Myanmar International TV

Amyotha Hluttaw Session: 10th day of 2nd regular session held

The Tenth Day of the Second Regular Session of the Third Amyotha Hluttaw was held at 10:30 a.m. on June 25 at the Amyotha Hluttaw Hall in Nay Pyi Taw. Of the 209 representatives entitled to attend, 203 were present. Acco

Myanmar International TV

Monsoon Tree Planting : Collective tree planting held in Hopong

The Department of Forestry's collective tree-planting ceremony for the monsoon season was held on Thursday near Nam Baw Hune Village, Hopong Township, Pa-O Self-Administered Zone, Shan State (South). At the tree-planting