Duterte-Carpio leads 2028 presidential race in inaugural poll

Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio emerged as the top pick for president in the 2028 elections, according to nonpartisan public opinion research firm Momentum Research, although it noted that the country’s top post remains wide open amid her ongoing impeachment trial and a sizable bloc of independent voters. In its inaugural National Momentum Survey released on Thursday, which was conducted from July 13 to 16, 44.2% of respondents said they would vote for the vice-president if the presidential election were held during the survey period. The first National Momentum Survey is a nationwide, non-commissioned survey of 1,438 Filipinos aged 18 and above. Trailing behind her are former vice-president and Naga City Mayor Maria Leonor “Leni” G. Robredo with 23.8%, and Senator Rafael “Raffy” T. Tulfo with 12.2%. Opposition figures Senator Ana Theresia “Risa” Hontiveros-Baraquel and Senator Paolo Benigno “Bam” A. Aquino IV garnered 2.4% and 2.0%, respectively. Senator Christopher Lawrence “Bong” T. Go, Senator Francis Pancratius “Kiko” N. Pangilinan, and Interior and Local Government Secretary Juanito Victor “Jonvic” C. Remulla Jr. each received less than 2% voter preference. In a head-to-head presidential matchup between Ms. Duterte and Ms. Robredo, Ms. Duterte remained the top choice with 53.5%, while Ms. Robredo garnered 38.9%. The remaining respondents were either undecided or refused to answer, the survey showed. Ms. Duterte’s consistency as the leading presidential contender for 2028, which has also been reflected in other surveys, stems from the faction of voters who identify themselves as pro-Duterte, Momentum Research Founder and Chief Executive Officer Cleve V. Arguelles said. “If we use the survey compared to other surveys, the vice president’s number for voting intentions in 2028 doesn’t move at all, which could be a good thing or a bad thing,” Mr. Arguelles said during a press conference. “The reason is a lot of it has something to do with the structure of the support for the vice president,” he added. The survey’s factional partisanship data showed that 28.9% of respondents align themselves with the Dutertes and their allies, while 12.4% support the opposition led by Ms. Robredo and her allies, and 11% identify themselves as pro-Marcos. However, the largest bloc of respondents — 45% — consider themselves independent or do not support any of the country’s three dominant political factions, suggesting that the presidency remains up for grabs. “While each political faction remains sizeable, nearly half of the population belongs to what we call the middle forces or the political center, who remain undecided on whom they will support in 2028,” Mr. Arguelles said. “Whether it is Vice-President Sara or her challengers, no one should be overconfident. It’s still too early,” he added. Mr. Arguelles also said that the presidential preference figures could still change depending on the outcome of the ongoing impeachment proceedings against the vice-president. The survey found that 83.3% of respondents believe it is important for Ms. Duterte to face the impeachment trial, while 43.8% said it is still too early to determine whether she would be convicted or acquitted. Meanwhile, the vice-presidential race is shaping up to be a two-way contest between Mr. Tulfo, who garnered 18.3% voter preference, and Mr. Go with 16.2%. Trailing behind are Senator Robinhood Ferdinand C. Padilla with 13.5%, and Senator Rodante D. Marcoleta and Mr. Aquino with 9.1% each. Mr. Pangilinan and Ms. Hontiveros both received 8% voter preference. Other officials who garnered less than 3% include Senator Maria Imelda Josefa “Imee” R. Marcos, Senator Sherwin T. Gatchalian, Mr. Remulla, and Public Works and Highways Secretary Vivencio B. Dizon. For the senatorial race, incumbent senators and Duterte allies Mr. Padilla and Alan Peter S. Cayetano topped voter preference with 43.9% and 43.4%, respectively. They were followed by Mr. Tulfo (38.2%), Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Z. Duterte (34.8%), Senator Mary Grace Natividad “Grace” Poe-Llamanzares (33.7%), former Senate President Vicente “Tito” C. Sotto III (32.9%), and Senator Lorna Regina “Loren” B. Legarda (31%) Other personalities who made the Magic 12 include former senator and former senators Emmanuel D. Pacquiao and Maria Lourdes Nancy S. Binay, Senate President Francis Joseph “Chiz” G. Escudero, Davao City First District Representative Paolo Z. Duterte, and former Senator Cynthia A. Villar. The survey also covered other key political issues, including Filipinos’ views on the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice-President Duterte, the upcoming State of the Nation Address of President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., and the country’s overall direction. Momentum Research said it expects to release the survey on a monthly basis while the impeachment trial is ongoing. — Edg Adrian A. Eva