Thailand Inches Closer to Removal from US Currency Watchlist

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is optimistic that the nation will be removed from the US Treasury's Monitoring List in the next review, citing improvements in its economic data. This suggests Thailand will not meet the criteria for inclusion in the upcoming assessment. Chayawadee Chai-anant, the BOT's assistant governor, stated during a media briefing on Friday that the US Treasury will evaluate Thailand's economic data from July 2025 to June 2026 for the next review. During this period, Thailand is not expected to meet the criteria for the list, leading to a projected removal in the report to be released between late 2026 and early 2027. "If Thailand does not meet any of the criteria in the next assessment, it is expected to be removed from the Monitoring List," she said. Thailand remained on the list in the July 2026 report, which covered the four quarters through June 2025. The report placed 20 economies on the Monitoring List based on three criteria. The three criteria are: a significant bilateral trade surplus with the US of at least $15 billion; a material current account surplus of at least 3% of GDP; and persistent, one-sided foreign exchange intervention in at least eight out of 12 months, with net purchases totalling at least 2% of GDP. According to the report, Thailand met only the bilateral trade surplus with the US measure, as its current account surplus fell below the 3% of GDP threshold. Thailand's bilateral trade surplus with the US has increased steadily in recent years, reaching $54 billion over the four quarters through June 2025, more than double the level recorded five years earlier. Thailand's current account surplus has gradually recovered since the pandemic. However, it remained below the US Treasury's threshold at 2.8% of GDP over the four quarters through June 2025. The report noted that Thai authorities' foreign exchange intervention appeared to be aimed at smoothing excessive exchange rate volatility amid appreciation pressure on the baht during the reporting period. The Bank of Thailand reported net foreign reserve purchases of $5 billion over the four quarters through June 2025, equivalent to about 0.9% of GDP. "During the reporting period, the Bank of Thailand purchased a small amount of foreign exchange on a net basis," the report said. The baht was one of the strongest-performing currencies against the US dollar over the four quarters through June 2025, gaining 13.1%, attributed to Thailand's cyclical economic recovery and a monetary easing cycle in the second half of 2024.