Thailand Eyes Exit from US Monitoring List on Economic Improvements

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is optimistic that the nation could be removed from the US Treasury's Monitoring List in the next review, citing improvements in its economic data. Assistant Governor Chayawadee Chai-anant stated that the US Treasury will assess Thailand's economic data from July 2025 to June 2026 for the upcoming review. During this period, Thailand is not expected to meet the criteria for inclusion on the list, paving the way for its removal in the next report, projected for release between late 2026 and early 2027. "If Thailand does not meet any of the criteria in the next assessment, it is expected to be removed from the Monitoring List," Ms. Chai-anant said. However, BOT data indicates that Thailand recorded a trade deficit of US$12.1 billion in the second quarter of this year, with the year-to-date trade deficit reaching US$12.4 billion. The current account deficit totalled US$17.1 billion in the second quarter, and US$16.3 billion year-to-date. Ms. Chai-anant stressed that the central bank does not intervene in the foreign exchange market to gain a competitive advantage in its exchange rate. Thailand remained on the list in the July 2026 report, which covers the four quarters through June 2025. The report placed 20 economies on the Monitoring List based on three criteria: a significant bilateral trade surplus with the US of at least US$15 billion; a material current account surplus of at least 3% of GDP; and persistent, one-sided foreign exchange intervention in at least eight out of 12 months, with net purchases totalling at least 2% of GDP. According to the report, Thailand met only the bilateral trade surplus with the US measure, as its current account surplus fell below the 3% of GDP threshold. Thailand's bilateral trade surplus with the US has increased steadily in recent years, reaching US$54 billion over the four quarters through June 2025, more than double the level recorded five years earlier. Thailand's current account surplus has gradually recovered since the pandemic, but it remained below the US Treasury's threshold at 2.8% of GDP over the four quarters through June 2025. The report noted that Thai authorities' foreign exchange intervention appeared to be aimed at smoothing excessive exchange rate volatility amid appreciation pressure on the baht during the reporting period. The Bank of Thailand reported net foreign reserve purchases of US$5 billion over the four quarters through June 2025, equivalent to about 0.9% of GDP. "During the reporting period, the Bank of Thailand purchased a small amount of foreign exchange on a net basis," the report said. The Thai baht was one of the strongest-performing currencies against the US dollar over the four quarters through June 2025, gaining 13.1%, attributed to Thailand's cyclical economic recovery and a monetary easing cycle in the second half of 2024.