Min Aung Hlaing seeks to use India for military offensive, inevitably relies on China: ISP Myanmar

June 30 Mizzima. The junta leader Min Aung Hlaing seeks to leverage close ties with India for political and military offensives, while inevitably relying on China's influence, according to a new report by ISP-Myanmar. The report, titled "Security, Economy and Influence: Differences in China and India's Approaches to Myanmar," was released by ISP on June 29. The report analyzes the differing approaches and interests of the two neighboring countries in three points, with the above being included in the first analysis. ISP stated that the semi-civilian military regime aims to gain an advantage in the western fronts connected to Rakhine, Chin, and Sagaing-Magway. Sagaing Region and Chin State border India, and Rakhine State also relies on imports from India. Meanwhile, China is directly involved as an indispensable mediator in the peace talks in northern Shan State, and has the power to influence the handling of Myanmar affairs, the report states. The second point is that in the economic, trade, and investment sectors, India considers the Kaladan Multi-purpose Project, the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, and the reopening of border trade routes as its main interests. Furthermore, ISP indicates that India is also interested in securing strategic rare earth minerals from Myanmar. However, most of the rare earth mineral producing areas are in territories controlled by the Kachin Independence Army, and some of India's project routes are connected to areas controlled by the Arakan Army (AA) and other revolutionary forces. The report also states that the Min Aung Hlaing government's efforts to restart the Myitsone Dam project may not only fulfill China's wishes but also become a bargaining chip that can be used to pressure the KIA on the northern front. The third point analyzes that for Min Aung Hlaing's military regime, escaping international diplomatic isolation and gaining official recognition is the main objective. ISP states that it is also hoping to regain entry into the UN and ASEAN with China's support, but it will not be able to balance its excessive reliance on China anytime soon. Therefore, ISP-Myanmar analyzes that the military activities and offensives of the SAC forces may intensify on the northern, western, and central fronts of Myanmar, including Kachin State. Min Aung Hlaing's visit to India lasted five days from May 30 to June 3, 2026, and his visit to China lasted five days from June 15 to 19. During the visit to China, 18 government-to-government Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) were signed, and about 70 business-to-business MoUs were signed. During the visit to India, discussions were held to sign a maritime trade agreement, and the goal was to increase bilateral trade from the current US$2 billion to US$3 billion in the first phase and US$5 billion in the second phase, ISP reported. The report states that India's main interests are northeastern border security, preventing Myanmar territory from being used for anti-India activities, rescuing Indian nationals trapped in online scams, and cracking down on cross-border crimes. ISP analyzes that China's interests include stability in northern Myanmar, security of Chinese projects and Chinese nationals, crackdown on online scams, online gambling, drugs, and cross-border crimes, as well as securing Myanmar's support for the "One China Policy." Editor: Aung Kyaw Phyo The post Min Aung Hlaing seeks to use India for military offensive, inevitably relies on China: ISP Myanmar appeared first on BUR.MIZZIMA.COM.