Palay, Corn Output Seen Falling in Q3, Raising Food Security Concerns

Palay (unmilled rice) and corn production in the Philippines are estimated to have decreased by 15.0% and 14.4% year-on-year respectively in the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). The decline is primarily attributed to a reduction in planted areas. As of August 1, palay output for the third quarter was estimated at 3.19 million metric tons (MMT), a drop from the 3.75 MMT actually produced a year earlier. This figure also falls short of the PSA's July forecast of 3.26 MMT. The land planted to palay during the period was estimated to have shrunk by 15.8% year-on-year to 771,790 hectares. However, the yield per hectare is projected to have increased by 1% year-on-year to 4.13 metric tons. Corn output for the third quarter is estimated at 2.08 MMT, down from 2.43 MMT produced in the same period last year. This is also slightly lower than the July projection of 2.11 MMT. The area planted to corn was estimated to have contracted by 12.8% year-on-year to 688,030 hectares. The yield per hectare is expected to have declined by 1.6% to 3.02 metric tons. These reductions in production could impact the domestic food supply in the Philippines, particularly the stable provision of rice, its staple grain, raising concerns for food security. The agricultural sector remains a crucial part of the Philippine economy, and fluctuations in production directly affect farmers' incomes and the rural economy.