El Niño impact on PH rice supply, production seen in early 2027 -- DA

The Department of Agriculture (DA) anticipates that the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on the country’s rice supply and production will be felt in the first half of 2027. "So this year, we do not see an impact from El Niño on our overall supply. It will be in the first semester of next year. That is where there will be a potential impact," DA spokesperson Arnel de Mesa said in a press briefing. De Mesa said the severity and duration of El Niño would determine its impact on the agriculture sector. "It depends on the severity and how long the El Niño lasts. Normally, when there is a severe El Niño, what follows is La Niña towards the end of 2027 as well," he said. "So 2027 will be a slightly more challenging year than 2026 if you look at the challenges posed by El Niño and La Niña to the agriculture sector," De Mesa added. State weather bureau PAGASA has warned that a Super El Niño could develop in the latter part of 2026. Its possible impacts include prolonged droughts across Southeast Asia and Australia, heavy rainfall and flash floods in parts of South America, and stronger tropical cyclones affecting areas such as Hawaii, Japan, China, and the Philippines. The DA said it is focusing on boosting local production while allowing imports to continue to ensure sufficient rice stocks ahead of the anticipated dry conditions. "So we're focusing on local production, but at the same time, we won't stop imports so we can boost our stocks. Because our issue, again, regarding rice supply will not be this year but next year, especially with the dry-season harvest that could be affected in March or April," he said. The DA earlier projected that rice production could decline by as much as 700,000 metric tons, or about 3.5% of its annual production target, if a strong El Niño develops, posing significant risks to the country's food security and farmers' livelihoods. The Agriculture department said P6.2 billion has been released by the Department of Budget and Management for fertilizer and fuel assistance in preparation for El Niño. "Actually, P6.2 billion has already been released for fertilizer and fuel assistance in preparation for El Niño. And the DA has an additional request for solar irrigation projects to respond to the threat of El Niño," he said. The DA is also considering alternative livelihoods for rice farmers in areas expected to be severely affected by the weather phenomenon. "Based on our lessons from previous El Niño events, in areas that will be hit really hard, we won't force farmers to plant rice because the crops will likely die," he said. “So we'll give them alternative livelihoods, alternative crops to plant, or livestock to raise because their income and livelihood will be affected. So that's the strategy,” De Mesa added.— MCG, GMA News